If there’s anything I’ve learned, it’s that all things are cyclical…ok, not all things, but most things…some things? All right, so I haven’t learned anything. Where was I? Oh yeah, some things are cyclical…well, I do know of one thing for sure that is: the popularity of the NBA. It’s as predictable as the weather…hey, which is also cyclical. Allow me the pleasure of comparing the two.

Here’s what we know about the weather: The earth is warmed by the Sun, and thus, global temperatures on earth rise and fall based on the activity level of the Sun (and not by us driving our Escalades too much). In fact, there is massive scientific evidence showing the direct correlation between the presence of sunspots, the degree to which their presence fluctuates, and the climate. However, regardless of how simple this may seem, it has never stopped the alarmists from preaching a doomsday message, whichever one “feels” apparent at the time. For instance, from 1895 until 1930, the media peddled a coming ice age. From 1930 to the 1960′s, they warned us that the earth may melt. Then from the 60′s to around 1980, they again cautioned us to prepare for a global deep freeze, only to turn on a dime once more to hard sell us on the idea of global warming. These calls for panic reached mass hysteria earlier this decade based on data suggesting that 1998 was the hottest year recorded to date. However, since 98 the earth’s temperature has once again cooled, and recently done so at such a blistering rate, that all the fear mongers can do at this stage is to tell us to fear “climate change” in a general sense…whatever the heck that means. So, I guess now we should be concerned with all forms of weather flux, hot or cold, even if after 100 years of trepidation we’re back to the exact place where we started? Maybe what it’s really about is that the powers-that-be like to use fear as means to gain more power. Hmmm, maybe…but I digress.

What does this all mean? Well, certainly there are many variables outside of sunspots that must be used to predict future climate changes and paradigms, but according to research by scientists sans agendas, the Sun and its activity or lack thereof are the best indicators we currently have, and they are telling us that 1998 was the apex and the end of the last warming period. Like I previously mentioned, as of today, we have been on a cooling down slope for 11 years, and according to an actual scientist friend of mine about this very thing last week, generally these cycles run a decade or two at a time. So, it seems then that by the time the media gets around to promoting yet another impending ice age, things will once again just be starting to heat back up.

And that has what to do with the NBA exactly? Glad you asked.

Here’s what we know about the NBA: Its level of popularity is directly influenced by the level of its superstars, or more importantly, its banner superstar. In 1981, the NBA was at a low point. The Finals that year had a Nielsen rating of only 6.7 (in comparison, the 1981 NCAA Championship Game had a rating of around 30). Bird and Magic were on the scene then, but they didn’t capture America’s attention until they further blossomed as players, leading to the Celtics – Lakers rivalry of the 80′s, a constant tug-of-war over basketball supremacy, that sizzled on every level. In 1987, this rivalry reached a boiling point shooting the Nielsen ratings of the NBA Finals up to a, then record, 15.7. The proverbial ball was rolling. So when the Bad Boys dethroned the Celtics in the East the next year, and eventually the Lakers as NBA champs the year after, Isaiah grabbed the torch and ran with it…but he was merely a relay man whose role was to hand it to the greatest player ever, Michael Jordan. MJ gripped it with both hands in 1991, and he proceeded to take the NBA to the mountaintop of fandom, culminating with the 1998 Finals (see the parallels with the weather) which hit an all time high Nieslen rating for the NBA of 18.7. However, Jordan called it quits immediately after that season, and many fans retired with him. It’s been downhill ever since (of course, the lockout of 1999 didn’t help matters either). Kobe and Shaq tried to carry the superstar torch, and did for a little while as the 2000-2002 Finals had Nielsen ratings in the 11′s and 12′s, but their messy breakup in 04 proved that neither were mature enough to carry it together nor capable of carrying it alone. Three years later, the 2007 Finals between the Spurs and Cavs scored the lowest NBA Nielsen rating in history at a mere 6.2. Ouch…the torch had been extinguished.

So what does this all mean? Well, certainly there are many variables outside of the presence of a transcendent superstar to predict fan interest in the league, but as I’ve said before, the NBA is based on individuals and their ability to both perform and entertain. Case in point: Tim Duncan is one of the best and most consistent players the NBA has ever seen, but it’s no secret why The Onion wrote this piece…he’s not flashy, and so, although he won his first of four NBA titles the very season after Jordan left, he just wasn’t the right guy to carry the torch. So now, here we are in 2009, and the NBA is coming off a season where even the rekindled (if only for 1 year) rivalry of the Lakers – Celtics, and their meeting in the Finals last year, a series featuring stars like Kobe, KG, Pierce, Gasol, Allen, etc. could only generate a 9.3 on the Nielsen scale. That being said, brighter days do lie ahead. A new crop of stars is budding: Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Dwayne Wade, Brandon Roy, etc. Yet more than all of those players combined, I see one superstar that is ready, willing, and oh so able to relight and carry any torch the NBA needs carried. His name is Lebron James. Don’t take my word for it, though; see for yourself this June when he publicly dismantles the man that should have been carrying the superstar torch all along…Kobe Bryant.

I guess I’m kind of like the Al Gore of the NBA. “Please good people, ignore the late March snowstorms and record cold temperatures this past winter. We’re all going to die from global warming, that is, unless you send me more money so that I may travel the world on my personal jet in order to make more money save lives.” Ok, maybe I’m not quite like that, but still…I urge you to ignore whatever perceptions you may have developed about the NBA, or whatever else it is that eventually drove you away as a fan this past decade. If you like basketball, it’s time to tune back in. We could be headed for the hottest period of NBA action yet. Plus, if the weather parallels stay true to pattern, it might already be upon us. It was 97 degrees yesterday here in Richmond…in April.

See, I told you. It’s all cyclical.