Lebron James is a star, a once in a generation level basketball player blessed with unparalleled athleticism. Of this, there is no argument from any rational person. The kind of stats that he has put up these last few seasons are simply jaw dropping, including an average of 29.7 points, 8.6 assists, and 7.3 rebounds this year. Without trying to do a nit-picky, statistical comparison between him and Michael Jordan (I’ve already been down that road before), that kind of production is, dare I say, Jordan-esque. If Lebron were to hang it up tomorrow, he would probably already be, at 25 years old, a unanimous first-ballot hall-of-famer.

He’s that good.

Regardless, though, of his gaudy numbers, LBJ is at a crossroads…one that will ultimately define him as a player. Two paths have converged for Lebron, and although the result of following either will surely one day identify him as an NBA great, only the road less traveled is truly fit for The King…for at its end await the likes of Jordan, Bird, Magic, and Russell. Kobe is headed down this path right now. There are others too, but not many. On the other hand, the alternative, broadly worn path isn’t necessarily an indictment of failure. It wouldn’t altogether void the achievements of Lebron’s NBA career, which will most likely be staggering when complete, but it will leave it forever littered with what-ifs. Waiting at the end of this path is a group of quietly disappointed former superstars who stand shuffling, hands in pockets, trying to hide their ringless fingers. Here you’ll find Barkley, Malone, and Iverson. No one with Lebron’s ability should ever end up in this group. However, we all know that talent alone is a consistently unreliable determinant of success. In fact, it might not even be the primary determinant. There is a reason that Wilt Chamberlain ended up with 10 fewer NBA Titles than Bill Russell. There are mental, emotional, and psychological factors always in play, and they, in conjunction with physical skill separate the great players from the great winners.

Now, Lebron is only 25 years old, and so the book on his career is far from being shut…in fact, given the uncertainty of the impending offseason, as well as his incredible ability and likeable personality, it most definitely has a number of chapters yet to be written, and it’s probably fair to assume that the majority will be wildly successful by most standards.

So why then do I suggest that Lebron James now stares at a career defining fork in the road?

For one, Lebron James can’t be judged by most standards. He isn’t a Kevin Garnett, that is, a great player who couldn’t win when it counted, then finally did, so now his career is validated, and he’ll be remembered forever as a stud and a winner. No, Lebron has GOAT potential…legitimately. One championship where he’s one of several All-Stars on a team thrown together at the last minute during the sunset of his career, or any scenario on the same scale, won’t and shouldn’t be sufficient to ultimately put someone as breathtakingly talented as him in the same conversation with legends like Jordan, Bird, Magic, and Russell. A guy like KG isn’t in that conversation at all. One magical year combined with a solid career is good enough to secure his place in history as a great player. Lebron, though, needs to own a decade…he has to win multiple titles. Maybe that’s unfair? I don’t know, but I know that in life, as well as on the mantle of NBA history, to whom much is given much is required.

Secondly, if the Cavs don’t win it all this year…mind you that they’re coming off a second straight season with the best overall record at 60+ wins…then the questions of whether or not Lebron can truly win the big one will surface, and justifiably so. Assuming the Cavs do come up short again, and this is very possible as they have Boston already pushing them, Orlando to be likely waiting, and whoever will come out of the West looming large, Lebron’s career playoff resume would look like this: out in the East Semis in 06, out in the NBA Finals in 07, out in the East Semis in 08, out in the East Finals in 09, and out again at some point in 2010. I’m sorry, but if this is how it goes down, regardless of his supporting cast and their problems, that’s not getting it done. Besides, has he not had good enough players around him to secure the overall number one seed now two years in a row? Sure, you could make the case that under the weight of the playoffs, some of his guys folded, but to that I pose this…why didn’t Jordan’s guys wilt under the pressure? No one is supposing that Lebron is solely responsible for his team’s success or failure, but it must be acknowledged that most role players don’t have the capacity to really rise to the occasion without a transcendent superstar by their side lifting them to new heights through their fierce will to win at all costs. For Lebron, to be one day viewed along side the greatest winners in NBA history, he must do this for his teammates consistently…every single night. Can he get there eventually? Certainly…he’s still very young, he has a magnetic personality, and seems genuinely liked and respected by those around him. Here’s the important question, though: does he have the requisite measure of internal drive and mental toughness to win at a level to put him in a class with a Michael Jordan or a Bill Russell?

That may seem like a harsh question to ask about a phenom so young and already so decorated, but I direct you to Exhibit A: Lebron’s elbow. Yes, it has its own Twitter page. Well, not really, but this thing has taken on a life of its own…much of which, I admit, is media generated and perpetuated. However, contrast the effect his elbow strain has had on him and his team versus Kobe and his mangled finger from a year ago…or what about versus Jordan in the flue game? The difference is stark. Now, I can’t speak to how painful Lebron’s elbow really is, and I do credit him for not publically whining about it. That being said, I’m a “actions speak louder than words” kind of guy, and what the Cavs and Lebron have billed as a minor, meaningless twinge of an elbow turned the eye of the tiger that we saw in Lebron last series in game 4 against Chicago into that of a domesticated house cat in games 1 and 2 against Boston. He wasn’t nearly as aggressive, sometimes he was uninvolved altogether, and his team predictably absorbed his passivity.

Here’s the point I’m trying to make. When Kobe busts a finger, you wouldn’t even know anything happened. When Jordan had a high fever, he went out and threw down on the Jazz in maybe the greatest show of “there is nothing going to stop me from winning another one” I’ve ever seen. I’ve yet to see that kind of ice cold “get outta my way, come hell or high water, we’re doing this thing” attitude from Lebron. Well, check that…I’ve seen flashes of it. He had it in 2007 when he single-handedly put away the Pistons by scoring 25 in a row and 29 out of the Cavs final 30 points in game 5 of the ECF. He had it last series in Chicago in the afore mentioned game 4. He made a point of announcing his unbridled focus before that game and then made good on it by trouncing the Bulls with a triple double as well as a casual half-court jumper as an explanation point. He even had it again tonight in a big game 3 against the Celtics where he controlled the action on both ends, embarrassed them in their building, and gave the Cavs a huge win to reclaim the home court advantage. But, as absolutely impressive as these examples are, isn’t this the very problem? Jordan had the assassin mentality against the Clippers in November when up by 35 with 2 minutes left in the 4th. Kobe has it when he steps into the gym at 6:00 AM every morning to complete his workout. Mental toughness, the will to win no matter what, the proverbial eye of the tiger isn’t something you can just turn on and off. You either have it or you don’t. You’re either a stone cold killer or you’re not. Michael Jordan’s competitive nature was legendary when he played, and it still bleeds into every facet of his life. It, quite frankly, makes him come across as a complete jerk most of the time, and Kobe has this same quality (though not quite to the same extent). It makes them unrelatable. It’s also what makes them winners at the highest level. Lebron is different, though, and maybe…unfortunately even…that’s why the jury is still out on him.

Look, Lebron James is undeniably gifted with astonishing ability, and I’m not questioning his effort or motives even a little bit, but I still have to wonder at this stage of the game whether he truly possesses that rare pinpoint laser focus that it takes to be a perennial champion. Just like you can’t teach freakish athleticism, you can’t teach the winner’s gene either. Jordan, Russell, Bird, Magic, Kobe…they all have it. Lebron has more physical tools than all of them, but that doesn’t automatically make him a winner. Now, he might be. Heck, he probably will be. We just don’t know yet. This much, though, I do know: if Lebron can’t win it all now, what’s to say that next year, or the next batch of players around him, or even the next team he might play for will offer him any better of an opportunity to win than what he has today? The paths are converging on him quickly, and the window to forever set his foot on the road less traveled closes ever so slightly with each year that ends in defeat. It appears to me, that in order to erase all doubt and to be clearly defined as a winner going forward, for the Chosen One, the time of reckoning may very well be…right now.