I’m going to tell you straight up, my friend; I am literally pumped out of my mind about the NBA playoffs starting this Saturday! Let me break down why for you.

- I am a huge sports fan. Watching sports, discussing sports, watching other people discuss sports, playing sports, or all of the above are pretty much always enjoyable to me.

- Basketball is my favorite sport.

- The NBA is basketball’s greatest stage made up of the world’s greatest players, and thus, it is also my favorite professional league to follow.

- The 2007-2008 NBA regular season was one of the greatest in decades, and therefore, it stands to reason that the playoffs should follow suit.

So yeah, I’m fired up about them. Allow me then, if you will, to throw in my 2 cents of analysis. We’ll start with the East.

Eastern Conference (Quarter Finals):

(1) Boston vs. (8) Atlanta – First off, let me say congratulations to the Hawks for making the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Now granted they did so with an atrocious record, and they will no doubt get housed in this round against the Celtics…but congratulations anyway. I will say this about Atlanta, though; if they can keep people like Johnson, Smith, and Horford healthy and happy and add a few more pieces over the years, this could be a very good team before you know it.

As for Boston, congratulations to them as well for having a monster season. Biggest single season turnaround in terms of wins for any team ever. Pretty impressive. Still, they haven’t won anything yet, and this group has never even played a playoff series together yet. Now, I for one deem the whole “experience in the postseason” to be an overrated quality in a team, but then again it’s not a complete non-factor either. The biggest questions though, for me, for Boston are as follows: #1. Do they have the energy to make it all the way through the grueling playoffs? KG, Allen, and Pierce are old veterans, veterans who aren’t used to playing late into May and June, and who have all played a lot of minutes this year. Not only that, but KG is the heart and soul of this team; his intensity has literally transformed the culture of the team as well. However, if you remember, in the year Minnesota made it to the West Finals, KG was flat burned out by the end of that series. He is by nature an extremely intense guy, and sometimes carrying out that level of intensity over 82 games, and then for a few rounds in the postseason, doesn’t leave you with much left, unfortunately, when it really counts. The big advantage for Boston, though, is this. With the Cavs looking skiddish, they probably won’t really get tested until the seemingly impending date with the Pistons in round 3. That’s an advantage that they earned too, by getting the 1st seed. #2. Though the Celtic’s role players have played surprisingly well all year, can they really be counted on to get the job done in the playoffs? Rondo, Posey, Perkins, House, Davis, and on and on are going to have to step up for Boston to win a championship. Can they do it? #3. Doc Rivers. This is a guy that was basically getting chased out of Boston by fans with pitchforks and torches last year for being so incompetent, and now he is getting talk about being Coach of the Year. Give me a break. Rivers is still not a good coach, and with all of the adjustments that go on in the postseason with playing the same teams over and over again, I question whether he’ll be up to the task.

Now, as far as this Atlanta series, Boston should just overwhelm the young Hawks and win in 4.

(2) Detroit vs. Philadelphia (7) - No team has had a bigger turnaround since the All-Star break than the Sixers. They seem to have found themselves. They are young, athletic, and they play very well together. I don’t expect them to get out of round 1, but they’ll probably steal a game from the Pistons.

As for Detroit, assuming they continue as expected, they will be making their 6 straight appearance in the East Finals. This has actually been a very successful season for the Pistons. Not only did they finish with the 2nd best record in the NBA (almost 60 wins!), but they did so with all of their starters averaging drastically fewer minutes than in previous seasons. Very, very impressive; even more impressive still is that their average point differential for the season (one of the best indicators of playoff success) is actually higher than it was in 2006 when they won a league and franchise best 64 games. So Detroit is looking good, and I can’t emphasize enough the importance of keeping their starters minutes down over the season. One of Detroit’s biggest problems cited for their meltdowns in the last two postseasons was that the 5 starters ran out of juice down the stretch. Well this year that can’t be an excuse. They are healthy, rested, and with Stucky, Maxiell, Afflalo, Johnson, Hayes, Ratliff, Hunter, and Dixon, they have the best bench they’ve had since they won in all in 2004. The reality, though, is they postseason is about your main guys playing at the top of their games when it counts. So, even though the Pistons really have developed an excellent bench this year, if Billups, Hamilton, Sheed, Tay, and Dyess don’t bring it, it won’t matter. For the Pistons, I really only have one big question mark for them…and it’s a big one. Can they match points with a Boston, Cleveland, or whomever else they may meet down the stretch without a clear cut go to guy? In the playoffs when the intensity is high, at the end of tight games things always tend to slow down a bit. Both teams’ offenses tend to be relocated to handing one guy the ball and expecting him to score on his man. Boston has Pierce. Cleveland has Lebron. Detroit doesn’t have this guy, and if they are going to win it all this year, they have got to make a conscious effort to continue to run and execute good sets all the way through late in games just as if it was the 1st quarter. If they don’t, they and fall into the one-on-one ball late in games, they will be bounced from the post season again.

As far as this Sixers series goes, though, it shouldn’t be too much trouble. I’m going to give Philly 1 game, though, since they’re much better than their record (and 7th seed) indicates. Pistons in 5.

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Toronto – This has been nothing short of a disappointing season for the Raptors. They were the 3 seed in the East last year, and with the East still being weak this year, for them to end up right around .500 was unacceptable. I don’t see them making any real noise this year in the playoffs, so I’m going to pass on evaluating them anymore.

Now to the team that nobody is talking about, the Orlando Magic. They won over 50 games this year and flew under everyone’s radar the whole time. They have a legitimate stud in Dwight Howard, and two really solid players in Hedo Turkaglu and Rashard Lewis. After that, though, it gets a little sparse…unless you think that Jameer Nelson is their franchise PG. I think they’ll take care of Toronto fairly easily, though; unfortunately, waiting for them then will be Detroit. Magic over Raptors in 5.

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Washington – This is by far the most intriguing series of the Eastern Conference 1st round. This will be the third straight time that these two teams have met in the postseason (with the Cavs winning the first 2), and Arenas has straight out said on his blog that they want Cleveland because they can’t beat them for three straight years.

Here’s the thing with Washington; they are a talented team. Are they ever healthy? No, but they are talented. Arena, Butler, and Jamison are as prolific as any trio in the league. It just seems as if they never get to play as a trio. Arenas has been out almost the entire season and can’t be expected to be his usual self in the playoffs; Butler is hurt now, and who knows how healthy he is, and Jamison is probably just a little tired from carrying the team on his back all year. All that being said, though, this is a dangerous team. When all the horses are playing, they are much better than their barely over .500 record indicates…and with a personal vendetta against the Cavs, look out. They could win this series; I don’t think they will, per se, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they did either.

Back at the trade deadline, Cleveland traded away half their team (the team that made it to the Finals last year), yet everyone, including me, saw it as a good deal for them. However, things just haven’t clicked thus far. They are just missing that extra something, be it rebounding, defensive pressure, or whatever that they had with the previous group. Here’s the thing, though, with Cleveland. It doesn’t matter but so much what the role guys (that would be everyone other than Lebron) are doing anyway. It is all about Lebron. He is a force to be reckoned with, a one man wrecking crew, and if he gets into a zone (see game 5 in the East Finals last year…hang on for a sec while I go kill myself) there’s nothing anybody’s going to do about it. Cavs over Wizards in 7.

Eastern Conference Semis (round 2, fight…little Street Fighter 2 flashback there for ya):

(1) Boston vs. Cleveland (4) - All right, this is where it gets good. Cleveland has actually played Boston very well this year, but I don’t think it will be enough to get by them. The Celtics are just a superior team. The biggest story line for this series is this: even though Boston will beat Cleveland, will chasing around and dealing with Lebron take too much out of them to beat Detroit in the East Finals? Just ask the 2006 Pistons about that (going to kill myself again now). Celtics over Cavs in 6.

(2) Detroit vs. (3) Orlando – This series won’t be as easy for the Pistons as the one against the Magic last year, that’s for sure. In fact, this is a perfect series for the Pistons to overlook. They love to lose focus and drift, and I think they’ll do just that here. Oh, I still think they’ll beat the Magic because they are a much better team, but they’ll let Orlando hang around just long enough to wear on them a little and hurt their chances against Boston. As a side note too, Detroit has had some real problems this year defending the high screen and roll (see all games against Utah as proof), and the Magic do this very well with Howard and Turkaglu. Not only that, but Orlando is an excellent three point shooting team. On the flip side, though, Chauncey is going to have a freaking field day on Nelson. Plus, with McDyess, Wallace, Ratliff, Maxiell, and Johnson (all good low post defenders), nothing will come easily for Howard. Pistons in 6.

Eastern Conference Finals:

(1) Boston vs. (2) Detroit – Aaaahhh, just like the 80′s. This is going to be a knock down, drag out, grudge match of epic proportions. I kinda wish we could just skip to this series (look at me now, overlooking whole playoffs games just like the Pistons!).

Here are some advantages that Detroit will have against Boston:

#1. Tayshaun is one of the best on ball defenders in the league, and he is long enough to stay in front of and pester Boston’s leading scorer (Pierce) all series.

#2. Sheed doesn’t always get up for big games, but he always gets up for big matchups. It doesn’t get any bigger than Kevin Garnett, and as the Sheed goes go the Pistons. That’s a good sign for Detroit.

#3. There’s no reason that Billups won’t have a good series on Rondo too, like he did against Jameer Nelson. Rajon actually isn’t a bad defender at all, but he gives up a lot of girth to Chauncey, and Chauncey is a very good post up guard.

Here are some advantages for Boston:

#1. Home court advantage. The Celtics have been really hard to beat in Boston all year, and I don’t expect that to change in the playoffs.

#2. The big three. Pierce is a tough enough scorer to deal with by himself, but when you throw KG and Ray Allen in the mix too, it’s almost a given that at least one of them is going to have it going every night they take the floor. Over a 7 game series, that’s tough to deal with.

#3. Stifling team defense. I think the biggest surprise this year for Boston has been how good they have been defensively, and again, I don’t expect this to change in the postseason. If there is one area where Detroit struggles, it is that they often become stagnate, unimaginative, and ineffective on offense. The Pistons are going to have to be crisp, creative, and hitting their shots to beat this Celtics team.

Advantage overall? Boston, by a hair. Celtics in 7 (of course, I hope I’m wrong).

Now, to the West…and what a season it has been for the Western Conference! Only 2 games separate teams 1-6 and only 7 games separate 1-8. The 2007-2008 Western Conference regular season was quite possibly the best one ever, so even though I’m an East Coast guy, I’m looking forward big time to the West playoffs too.

Western Conference (Quarter Finals):

(1) Los Angeles vs. (8) Denver – Good for the Nuggets for getting in, and good for them for winning 50 games this year too (yeah that’s right, the 8th seed in the West won 50 games). With Carmelo, AI, JR Smith, Camby, etc. it’s anyone’s guess as to why this team isn’t better than it is. I know saying that they are horrible defensively is the most popular answer, and no they aren’t good on defense, but considering the frantic pace in which they play they aren’t statistically as bad as everyone assumes. That being said, though I don’t give them a realistic shot of winning it all, they aren’t a cupcake either. LA won’t be able to waltz through this one…though I do think they’ll win.

What a difference a…er, improved Andrew Bynum…er, free Pau Gasol makes. If you remember, it wasn’t that long ago last summer that Kobe was publicly demanding to be traded from the Lakers. Now, going into the playoffs they are sitting as the #1 seed with 56 wins at the end of the most intense regular season in conference history. Wow. Lakers fans everywhere should be thanking Chris Wallace (GM of the Grizzlies) for thinking that swapping Gasol and Kwame Brown was somehow remotely fair! Now, looking at the Lakers, they have a very good shot of going all the way. First off, they have the best player in the game in Kobe. He can score at will, has that championship look about him, and is a cold-blooded killer down the stretch. They also have a secondary scorer like Gasol. Gasol never was meant to be numero uno on a contender, but he can definitely be Robin to Kobe’s Batman 24/7/365. As far as Bynum goes, I don’t think he’s coming back, and even if he does…how much can be expected from him? Outside of that, though, let’s not forget about Lamar Odom! Talk about a versatile, solid, solid player. Farmar, Vujacic, Fisher, Walton, Turiaf! This isn’t the worthless group of losers that Kobe though it was going into the season…there are some good players there. The only potential weakness that LA has is defense, but even that might be a stretch. This is a good, good team.

As far as the Denver series goes, Lakers in 5…I think they’ll cruise through this round.

(2) New Orleans vs. (7) Dallas – I didn’t like the Jason Kidd trade when Dallas did it, and I still don’t really like it. As good as Kidd is and has been, I just don’t think he really improved them dramatically over what Devon Harris was offering. That being said, the Mavs are better than your average 7 seed, for sure, I just don’t see this being their year.

Chris Paul, Chris Paul, and more Chris Paul. This guy is really an unbelievable player. He seems to be able to get wherever he wants on the floor whenever he wants and at whatever speed he wants to. As good as he is, it’s hard to know how good Chandler and West would be without him. Heck, even Peja desperately needs someone good to set him up to shoot (if you remember him with Sacramento a few years back, he really struggled creating his own shot come playoff time). I am the first to admit that I am amazed that the Hornets did as well as they did this year. I mean, come on, the 2nd seed? That’s awesome! That’s why it’s unfortunate for them that they have lost 12 straight in Dallas. Because of that, and because Dirk seems to have a bit of the scowl back that he had pre-2006 Finals meltdown, and definitely pre-2007 playoff meltdown, I’m going with Dallas…in 7. This should be a heck of a series.

(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Phoenix – If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that we’d have a first round 3-6 matchup between the Spurs and Suns in the playoffs, I would have told you that you better lay low on the crack for a while. But, alas, here we are. We can only hope that there’s still bad blood from last season’s controversial series.

Let’s talk Suns. Let’s talk the Shaq trade. Gutsy, strange, what? Those were many of the reactions I had when I heard about it. I also, though, could see how it could possibly work…didn’t endorse it, per se, but could see it as a possibility. Let’s not kid ourselves; Phoenix has lost a bit of the run-and-gun persona that they made so famous over the past few seasons. They have dangerously fewer shooters than even last year, and they are much, much older too (Nash, Shaq, Hill…these aren’t young guys). However, the one thing that the Shaq trade has done is forced other teams to not just pile up on Amare…and boy oh boy, has he responded. Honestly, watching a Suns game, it seems that Stoudamire gets a ridiculously, authoritative dunk every other possession. He has been playing like a man possessed…and Shaq, well Shaq seems to be rejuvenated and rested after tanking it all year in Miami.

If you thought the Suns were a little old, the Spurs make John McCain look like B.J. Armstrong. Other than Parker, they’re pretty much all old guys. That being said, they are always…always…always slept on, and when that happens they just go out and win the championship anyway. However, they do have an affinity for wining it all on odd years (99, 03, 05, 07), so we’ll give it to somebody else this year. I just think they’re aching a little too much and don’t have as solid a cast of role guys as previous years to go all the way in 08.

Suns in 7.

(4) Utah vs. (5) Houston – Here’s a little rematch from last year’s 7 games first round classic in which the Jazz won game 7 (gasp) on the road. I say “gasp” because the Jazz were 37-4 at home this year and 17-24 on the road. Geeze Utah, what’s up with that? (Side note: I’m going to talk about the Jazz first here, because even though they have the higher seed because they won their division, the Rockets have home court advantage because of a better record. I know, I know, it’s a little screwy.) Let me just come out and say it, though, I really like this Jazz team. Deron Williams is the man! I’m #1 in his fan club. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if the Jazz came out of the West this year (let’s not forget, either, that they did make it to the West Finals last season). Boozer, Korver, AK-47, Milsap, and of course Williams. Look out West!

If the Rockets get swept by the Jazz it won’t matter, because we’ll all just remember the 22 game winning streak earlier this year anyway. I didn’t even think that Houston would make the playoffs this year. In fact, I predicted in my mid season preview that they wouldn’t because either Yao or McGrady is always hurt. Well, Yao did get hurt…but the Rockets just kept winning anyway. They have great chemistry that you can’t teach; however, they still don’t have Yao, and now that the magic of the streak has worn off, I don’t just don’t see them getting it done.

Jazz in 6.

Western Conference Semis (round 2 figh…ok, you already heard that joke):

(1) Los Angeles vs. (4) Utah – If the Jazz were playing anyone else in this series, I would pick them to win. However, I just can’t see them knocking off LA. I just think that Kobe’s going to have the proverbial “eye of the tiger” all playoffs long. The only consolation here for Utah is that they are crazy good at home…for that reason and that reason alone I’m saying that this one will go 7.

Lakers in 7.

(6) Phoenix vs. (7) Dallas – It’s nice when you win as a 6 seed in the first round and get home court advantage in the second round isn’t it Phoenix? Weird. As for Dallas, I think this is where it ends for them. Nash is too quick for Kidd (who’s lost a step on D), and Kidd isn’t a good enough offensive player to exploit Nash’s well known defensive struggles. Who’s going to guard Amare and Shaq? The odd thing about this series is based on the last few years you’d think it would be an up and down run and gun shootout, but the reality is that while Dallas has gone from plodding to jogging a little with kid, Phoenix has gone the other way and met them in the middle. It may not be as high scoring as conventional wisdom would suggest. That doesn’t mean it won’t be a good series, though. It will, for sure.

Suns in 7.

Western Conference Finals:

(1) Los Angeles vs. (6) Phoenix – Kobe against Shaq in the Western Conference Finals! If you can’t get excited about this series, you’re basically just not a basketball fan…or an American…or a human. Now, as far as I can remember off hand (and no, I’m not actually going to fact check myself on this one, I’m just going to put it out there) the last time a 6th seed won it all was when Houston did back in the mid 90′s. Can Phoenix do it again in 2008? Sure, they can. I just don’t think that they will. I full assume Kobe to overcome Stoudamire’s 36 and 20 every game by flat out embarrassing Raja Bell…and loving every minute of it too. My head hurts too much from excitement to attempt to analyze every single matchup, so let’s just leave it that the Lakers just have too many weapons. Fair enough? Good.

Lakers in 7.

NBA Finals:

(1) Boston vs. (1) Los Angeles – Celtics/Lakers! Kobe/Garnett! Jackson/Rivers…oh, wait a minute. In all seriousness, though, if everything really does play out this way, David Stern will have the…I mean, he will absolutely…he will be so freaking…ok, I can’t say any of those things on my blog. He’ll be a very, very happy man. There. Whew. I mean, game 1 of this series should top the combined ratings of all 4 games of last year’s ratings debacle between the Spurs and Cavs.

All the pundits, myself included (yes, I’m a pundit so back off), have been saying for a while that the winner of the East will have an advantage going into the postseason because the West teams will have beat up on each other so much going in that the whoever emerges the winner won’t have much left in the tank come the Finals. I still agree with this; however, Boston will probably have to go through Lebron and the Cavs, then Detroit…and again, the Celts aren’t a young team. LA will have to go through Denver, Utah, and Phoenix (all more finesse related teams, none of which pound on you the way Cleveland and Detroit do). So, I don’t know if Boston really has an advantage in this regard. Here’s where they do have an advantage: Garnett to guard Gasol. That will neutralize him and take him out of his game; in fact, I full expect if Kevin has enough energy to play through this series at 100% that he should torch Pau night in and night out. Also, Paul Pierce has shown this year to be a very good defensive player. We knew he had it in him all these years; he just needed Garnett to get there to give him the motivation. I don’t know if he’ll play Kobe or not (I just can’t see Ray Allen having any chance against Bryant), but I think he could do a fairly good job on in if called to do so. Anyway, long story short, I’m going with the team that started out the year on top and ended that way too.

Celtics over Lakers in 7 (and again, I hope I’m wrong about all of this. If it were up to me, the Pistons would just sweep everybody and we’d all go dancing in the streets).

Oh, and I know what you’re thinking, “Wow Aaron, way to go with the gutsy pick…both #1 seeds.” Hey I know, but I call them like I see them. If you don’t like it, you can read someone else blog! No don’t, just kidding, please read mine! You’re all I got! That’s why I’d like to take this opportunity to say thanks to all of you who’ve stuck with me from beginning to end of this 4500 word monstrosity.